„Тоа е Дежа Ву“ - легендарен трговец кој ги нарече проблемите со падот на биткоинот во 2018 година, остар предвидувања како цена на биткоин, етериум, BNB, XRP, Solana, Cardano и Dogecoin Sink

Bitcoin
БТК
and many other cryptocurrencies keep chugging downhill.

This week the bitcoin price plunged to a little over $38,000 before rebounding this morning. The price of ethereum and solana dipped a few basis points, XRP 15%, cardano 5%. Dogecoin and BNB are slightly up.

Meanwhile, renowned trader Peter Brandt—who earned his name in the crypto space by calling some of bitcoin’s biggest moves, including its 80% decline in 2018—warns crypto investors of a looming dot-com-like crash.

Во едно неодамнешно чуруликам, one of the world’s most respected “chartists” highlighted “structural similarities” in the Nasdaq between today and the eve of the dot-com crash and called it “deja vu all over again”.

Brandt believes, therefore, that bitcoin may be in for a major correction and its price could plunge to $27,000 на краток рок.

[Забелешка: Инвестирањето во крипто е многу шпекулативно и пазарот во голема мера е нерегулиран. Секој што размислува за тоа треба да биде подготвен да ја изгуби целата своја инвестиција.]

Зумирање

What do stocks have to do with bitcoin and crypto as a whole?

For starters, major cryptos are highly correlated to the stock market. They also have a high бета to stocks. That means crypto, in effect, amplifies moves in stocks. If stocks soar, cryptos soar higher. And vice versa. If stocks tumble, crypto goes into free fall.

Not only that, both the correlation and beta have significantly increased since the beginning of the pandemic. In извештај од јануари, the IMF wrote:

„Во услови на поголемо усвојување, корелацијата на крипто средствата со традиционалните имоти како акции значително се зголеми, што ги ограничува нивните перцепирани придобивки од диверзификацијата на ризикот и го зголемува ризикот од зараза на финансиските пазари“.

Meanwhile, Alvin Tan of DataDrivenInvestor, points out that bitcoin’s “reactivity” to the stocks market today is “unprecedented” compared to its pre-pandemic price action.

“It is immediately obvious that Bitcoin’s stock market beta has turned persistently higher since the onset of the pandemic, implying that it has become more influenced by stock market fluctuations and in the same direction. The beta has remained near +1 or more pretty much since early 2021, and the persistence of this positive relationship is unprecedented in the pre-pandemic period,” he wrote in a Medium post.

That’s the S&P 500. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index is even more correlated to crypto. In fact, as Coindesk recently reported, bitcoin’s correlation to the Nasdaq today is the highest on record.

Looking ahead—will we see “decorrelation”?

If this relationship persists and central banks make good on their pledges to raise rates to rein in inflation, the Nasdaq and, by extension, major cryptos might face strong headwinds this year.

However, William Clemente, lead analyst at mining firm Blockware, thinks this correlation is temporary. And as bitcoin matures, its price action will diverge from riskier tech stocks. In fact, he thinks stocks and bitcoin will “break up” within a year.

„[Јас] ќе се запишам и ќе кажам дека мислам дека гледаме декорелација помеѓу биткоинот и акциите во следните 12 месеци…

If that happened, he added, it would be “quite powerful.”

Останете понапред од крипто трендовите со Во меѓувреме на пазарите…

Секој ден објавувам приказна која објаснува што ги движи крипто-пазарите. Зачленете се тука за да ги добиете моите анализи и избор на крипто во вашето сандаче.