Ethereum

Дериватите на Ethereum изгледаат мечешки, но трговците веруваат дека дното на ETH е внатре

11/29/2022
Вести за Bitcoin Ethereum

Етер (ЕТХ) rallied 5.5% in the early hours of Nov. 29, reclaiming the critical $1,200 support. However, when analyzing a broader time frame, the 24% negative performance in the past 30 days significantly impacts investors’ sentiment. Moreover, investors’ mood worsened after BlockFi поднесе барање за стечај на ноември 28.

Newsflow remained negative after the United States Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced a settlement with crypto exchange Kraken for “apparent violations of sanctions against Iran.” In a Nov. 28 announcement, the OFAC said Kraken had agreed to pay more than $362,000 to settle its potential civil liability.

Moreover, on Nov. 28, institutional crypto financial services provider Silvergate Capital denied rumors of significant exposure to BlockFi’s bankruptcy. Silvergate added that its losses are less than than $20 million in digital assets and reiterated that BlockFi was not a custodian for its crypto-collateralized loans.

Traders are afraid that Ether could drop below $800 if the bear market continues. One example comes from Crypto Twitter trader Il Capo Of Crypto:

Ајде да погледнеме Деривати на етер data to understand if the worsening market conditions have impacted crypto investors’ sentiment.

Сликата

Pro traders are slowly exiting panic levels

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. They are professional traders’ preferred instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a вечен фјучерс договор.

Двомесечната годишна премија за фјучерси треба да се тргува помеѓу +4% и +8% на здрави пазари за да ги покрие трошоците и поврзаните ризици. Така, кога фјучерсите се тргуваат со попуст наспроти редовните спот пазари, тоа покажува недостиг на доверба од купувачите на потпора - пад на индикаторот.

Етер 2-месечна фјучерси годишна премија. Извор: Лаевитас

The above chart shows that derivatives traders remain bearish as the Ether futures premium is negative. Nevertheless, it at least has shown some modest improvement on Nov. 29. Bears can highlight how far we are from a neutral-to-bullish 0% to 4% premium, but the aftermath of a 71% drop in one year holds great weight.

Still, traders should also analyze Пазари на опции на етер да се исклучат екстерналиите специфични за фјучерс инструментот.

Options traders do not expect a sudden rally

Наклонетоста на делта од 25% е знак кога креаторите на пазарот и арбитражните бироа претеруваат за заштита наопаку или надолу.

На мечкините пазари, инвеститорите во опции даваат поголеми шанси за пад на цените, предизвикувајќи индикаторот за искривување да се искачи над 10%. Од друга страна, нагорните пазари имаат тенденција да го придвижат индикаторот за искривување под -10%, што значи дека надолните опции се намалени.

Етер 60-дневни опции 25% искривување на делта: Извор: Laevitas

The delta skew has gone down in the past week, signaling that options traders are more comfortable offering downside protection.

As the 60-day delta skew stands at 18%, whales and market makers are pricing higher odds of price dumps for Ether. Consequently, both options and futures markets point to pro traders fearing a retest of the $1,070 low is the natural course for ETH.

From an optimistic perspective, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that the November 2022 sell-off was the fourth-largest за биткоин (БТК). The movement has led to a seven-day realized loss of $10.2 billion.

Consequently, odds are the capitulation for Ether holders has passed and those placing bullish bets right now — defying the ETH derivatives metrics — will eventually come out ahead.